Agronomic PracticesTechnologicalClimate changeStrategy 1. Resilient farmsStrategy 2. Sustainables territories
2010
ClosedCoffee growing is a very important source of foreign exchange for producing countries and provides livelihoods and food security to the numerous small producers who are engaged in this activity: for example, 110 thousand producers in Honduras and 30% of the rural population of Nicaragua depend on coffee farming. Assessments of the future impacts of climate change on the coffee sector carried out in Mexico, Brazil and Nicaragua indicate severe impacts. However, all the models used are based on characterizing the temperature and precipitation conditions, and do not take into account the potentially positive effect of the increase in CO2 concentration on the growth of the coffee plant and especially on its efficiency in water use. The project concentrated efforts on calibration and the use of modeling tools such as CAF2007. The model mainly simulates the coffee yield associated with agroforestry systems with specific trees by site, and allows to introduce the effect of the increase in CO2, as well as the management given by the coffee farmer (pruning, fertilization, shade) and can be used to formulate adaptation strategies to climate change.
The project aimed at developing coffee production models for predicting its adaptability to probable climatic changes. It had the following components: 1. Models of the coffee plant's response to climate change, 2. Assessment of the agro-climatic resilience of new coffee genetic resources. 3. Predict the adaptability of coffee under progressive climate change scenarios until 2050, and the evaluation of adaptation measures regarding the socio-economic impacts in three Central American countries. 4. Perceptions of coffee producers on climate change and adaptation options.
Given the uncertainty of the effects of climate change on coffee production by small Central American producers, the project focused on the calibration and validation of the CAF 2007 model, which allows simulating the production of coffee in agroforestry systems in the face of variable climate and temperature conditions, and CO2 concentrations. The model also can simulate the effects of various strategies used by farmers. Future coffee production was estimated under two climate change scenarios. The results also allowed evaluating some of the most commonly proposed strategies, such as the use of hybrids of high productivity and tolerance to common diseases that appear with climate change, as well as the effects of shade provided by different tree species in agroforestry systems. Perceptions of producers and technicians were gathered at workshops and their possible acceptance of the proposed strategies was assessed.
The simulation model for the development and production of coffee in agroforestry systems, CAF2007 was calibrated, validated, and implemented in representative climatic and management conditions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. A climate database of points used in the CAF2007 model under the RCP8.6 scenario was generated for the period 2045 to 2060.
Coffee production for the period 2045 to 2060 was estimated on farms of each climatic conglomerate in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras.
It was found that increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reduces the impacts of climate change.
The use of HF1 hybrids is an effective strategy, its productivity will be higher than that of traditional varieties, and it has great tolerance to rust, but its cost of implementation is still prohibitive, and only a proportion of the producers can implement these strategies. Its large-scale adoption will require major changes in the organization of seedling multiplication.
The use of shade as an element in the adaptation of coffee plantations to climate change is not a solution that will work everywhere, as it can be affected by soil conditions.
Adaptation strategies have to go hand in hand with the actors in the chain in order to encourage, increase and improve their adoption.
Six local, three national (two in Nicaragua and one in Costa Rica) and one regional workshops were held with producers and technicians.
Nine scientific articles and four book chapters were published, seven presentations were made at international conferences, and five postgraduate theses were conducted.
Financing of two new projects for the continuation of activities was obtained.
The direct beneficiaries were the dozens of researchers, technicians, and graduate students who participated in the project, as well as the hundreds of researchers and professionals who accessed the information presented at international conferences and published in scientific journals and books. Hundreds of producers and technicians who participated in local, national and regional workshops also benefited.
Based on the information generated in the project and other future research, well-sustained and appropriate strategies for adaptation to climate change could be developed for the potential benefit of thousands of small coffee producers in the Central American region.
This project actively contributes to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, promoting more equitable, resilient, and sustainable regional development.
_22_16_55.png&w=640&q=75)
Bruno Rapidel
Peter Laderach
_22_27_48.png&w=640&q=75)
Jorge Ramirez Rojas
Bruno Rapidel
The tangible impact of science and technology in the field
Sponsors
With the support of
Impact
Initiatives
Dashboard
Alliances
Impact
Initiatives
Dashboard
Alliances
1.png&w=384&q=75)
