Adaptation of coffee to climate change

Executive Summary

Coffee growing is a very important source of foreign exchange for producing countries and provides livelihoods and food security to the numerous small producers who are engaged in this activity: for example, 110 thousand producers in Honduras and 30% of the rural population of Nicaragua depend on coffee farming. Assessments of the future impacts of climate change on the coffee sector carried out in Mexico, Brazil and Nicaragua indicate severe impacts. However, all the models used are based on characterizing the temperature and precipitation conditions, and do not take into account the potentially positive effect of the increase in CO2 concentration on the growth of the coffee plant and especially on its efficiency in water use. The project concentrated efforts on calibration and the use of modeling tools such as CAF2007. The model mainly simulates the coffee yield associated with agroforestry systems with specific trees by site, and allows to introduce the effect of the increase in CO2, as well as the management given by the coffee farmer (pruning, fertilization, shade) and can be used to formulate adaptation strategies to climate change. 

The project aimed at developing coffee production models for predicting its adaptability to probable climatic changes. It had the following components: 1. Models of the coffee plant's response to climate change, 2. Assessment of the agro-climatic resilience of new coffee genetic resources. 3. Predict the adaptability of coffee under progressive climate change scenarios until 2050, and the evaluation of adaptation measures regarding the socio-economic impacts in three Central American countries. 4. Perceptions of coffee producers on climate change and adaptation options. 

The technological solution

Given the uncertainty of the effects of climate change on coffee production by small Central American producers, the project focused on the calibration and validation of the CAF 2007 model, which allows simulating the production of coffee in agroforestry systems in the face of variable climate and temperature conditions, and CO2 concentrations. The model also can simulate the effects of various strategies used by farmers. Future coffee production was estimated under two climate change scenarios. The results also allowed evaluating some of the most commonly proposed strategies, such as the use of hybrids of high productivity and tolerance to common diseases that appear with climate change, as well as the  effects of shade provided by different tree species in agroforestry systems. Perceptions of producers and technicians were gathered at workshops and their possible acceptance of the proposed strategies was assessed.

Results

Beneficiaries

The direct beneficiaries were the dozens of researchers, technicians, and graduate students who participated in the project, as well as the hundreds of researchers and professionals who accessed the information presented at international conferences and published in scientific journals and books. Hundreds of producers and technicians who participated in local, national and regional workshops also benefited. 

Based on the information generated in the project and other future research, well-sustained and appropriate strategies for adaptation to climate change could be developed for the potential benefit of thousands of small coffee producers in the Central American region. 

Sustainable Development Goals

Main donors